Biden leads Trump in new ECU poll

An East Carolina University poll conducted Oct. 15-18 shows that former Vice President Joe Biden has a 50% to 47% advantage over President Donald Trump among likely voters in North Carolina.

The results nearly mirror the four-point lead Biden had over Trump in a previous ECU poll taken in early October by the ECU Center for Survey Research. Currently, only 1% of the poll respondents reported they are undecided, with another 1% reporting that they intend to vote for another candidate.

Flags were placed in honor of veterans and current service members on ECU’s campus in 2015. (Photo by Cliff Hollis)

The new poll surveyed 1,155 likely voters in North Carolina.

According to Dr. Peter Francia, director of the ECU Center for Survey Research, the latest poll results point to some crucial factors to consider heading into the final weeks of the 2020 election.

“The Biden campaign is significantly outperforming what the Clinton campaign did in 2016 in the North Carolina suburbs,” Francia said, referencing Hillary Clinton’s bid for the White House four years ago. “In particular, Biden is winning over suburban women. If Biden can maintain the current level of support that he has in the suburbs, then he has a strong shot at winning North Carolina.”

Exit poll results in North Carolina from the 2016 election showed Trump with a 60% to 36% advantage over Clinton among suburban voters. However, four years later, ECU’s poll results show Biden and Trump tied at 49% in the North Carolina suburbs. Among women in the suburbs, Biden leads Trump 54% to 43%.

Trump has a 57% to 39% lead over Biden among poll respondents who live in rural areas — a margin nearly identical to the large advantage he had over Clinton in 2016 (58% to 39%). Likewise, the poll results of those who live in urban areas roughly match those from the exit poll results in 2016, with Biden leading Trump 59% to 39%.

Biden also has made gains among voters with a four-year college degree or higher when compared to Clinton’s totals in 2016. Among all respondents with a four-year college degree or higher, Biden leads Trump 55% to 43%. Four years ago, Clinton edged Trump by only one point among North Carolina voters with a four-year college degree.

In Trump’s favor, he continues to have a large advantage among white voters without a four-year college degree (or what some label white “working class” voters), 65% to 32% — an advantage similar to four years ago when he carried white working-class voters by a 69% to 25% margin.

While Trump trails Biden overall, he does have an “excitement” advantage. Nearly three out of four Trump supporters (74%) are “very excited” to vote (or to have voted). By comparison, 65% of Biden supporters fall into the “very excited” category, according to the poll.

“In an extremely competitive election, voter turnout is often the decisive factor,” Francia said. “Trump supporters are more excited than Biden supporters. That excitement advantage could well translate into a voter turnout advantage. If so, Republican candidates, from the top to the bottom of the ballot, could win in these hyper-competitive races.”

Much like the presidential election, North Carolina’s U.S. Senate race remains neck and neck. Democrat Cal Cunningham leads Republican Thom Tillis by a single point, 48% to 47%, despite recent reports that Cunningham had an extramarital affair. The results show 3% undecided (with the remainder indicating support for a candidate other than Tillis or Cunningham). The previous ECU Poll showed Tillis leading Cunningham by one point, 46% to 45%. In ECU’s September poll, the race was tied at 44%.

In the race for governor, Democratic incumbent Roy Cooper has a nine-point advantage over Republican challenger Dan Forest, 53% to 44% (with 2% undecided and 1% indicating support for some other candidate). This lead is slightly narrower than the previous ECU Poll, which put the governor ahead by 13 percentage points over Forest. Cooper continues to maintain more positive than negative evaluations for his work as governor. About 53% of likely voters approve of the governor’s overall job performance compared to 38% who disapprove (with the remaining 10% not sure). These approval numbers for Cooper are virtually unchanged since the last ECU Poll in early October.

In the contest for lieutenant governor, Republican Mark Robinson leads Democrat Yvonne Lewis Holley 47% to 42%. (The race was tied in the early October poll.) In the election for treasurer, Republican Dale Folwell leads Democrat Ronnie Chatterji 47% to 43% while in the race for attorney general, Democrat Josh Stein leads Republican Jim O’Neill, 49% to 44%.

Methodology

This poll was conducted Oct. 15-18. The sample consisted of 1,155 likely voters in North Carolina, with a credibility interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3.4 percentage points. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, education, race and region have higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. The data were weighted by age, education, race, gender, region, mode and 2016 election modeling. Data were collected using both an interactive voice response (IVR) system of landlines only (n=707) and an online panel provided by Lucid (n=448).