COVID-19 & POLITICS
Coronavirus may affect political election tactics, processes, results, public opinion
COVID-19 continues to shape our daily lives, and researchers at East Carolina University are providing some insight into the possible effects of coronavirus within politics. Specifically, political election tactics, processes and results may shift due to the virus. In addition, a North Carolina poll conducted May 7-9 by the university’s Center for Survey Research, delves into the 2020 election and public opinion on how local and national politicians are responding to the pandemic.
“The coronavirus has fundamentally changed the campaign playbook for both Donald Trump and Joe Biden,” said Dr. Peter Francia, director of the center and professor of political science in the Thomas Harriot College of Arts and Sciences.
“Before the outbreak, President Trump was going to be running on a platform that emphasized the strong U.S. economy. In particular, the Trump campaign was certain to highlight the historically low levels of national unemployment and the large gains made on Wall Street during his first term,” Francia said.
“With the economy now turned upside down and the coronavirus the center of all attention, the Trump campaign will need to pivot to portraying Trump as a wartime president who protected the nation from much more serious damage,” he said. “In contrast, the Biden campaign will attack Trump’s response to the coronavirus as erratic and insufficient. That debate will dominate all issues from now until Election Day in November.”
The processes involved in casting a ballot this November may likely depend on where the nation is in respect to coronavirus and its current rate of infection.
Dr. Peter Francia (contributed photo)
“In a best-case scenario, the curve for coronavirus infections will not only be flattened but crushed by the time of the November general election. If that can happen, voting can proceed as usual,” Francia said. “However, if infections continue to rise, then voting by mail will need to be debated and considered as an option.”
According to Francia, President Trump has voiced strong objections to voting by mail, although several states, including Washington, Oregon, Colorado and Utah already do this, with Hawaii moving to mail-only voting this year.
Currently, 28 other states allow for absentee voting by mail, but voters are not automatically sent a ballot. They must request one.
“I imagine that a lot of voters — certainly, many more than usual — will request mail absentee ballots if the coronavirus pandemic is not behind us by November,” Francia said.
During the Spanish flu, which lasted from 1918 to 1920 and infected an estimated 500 million people worldwide, for some precincts, there was no voting. In areas that did hold elections, people continued to cast ballots in person with some health precautions in place, including the use of face masks and social distancing, Francia said.
“Voter turnout was very low in 1918 for a midterm election,” he said. “Worst of all, infections increased after the election.”
Earlier this year, election results in Democratic Party primaries had unexpected outcomes, though not necessarily due to the coronavirus, Francia said.
On March 3, Biden won victories in Massachusetts and Minnesota, where he had spent little time campaigning. According to Francia, both of those wins came as a complete surprise and helped Biden effectively secure the party’s presidential nomination.
Since the coronavirus outbreak, some states opted to postpone primary elections, with the exception of Wisconsin, which Francia said drew criticism for going forward on April 7. Wisconsin experienced an upset in an election to its state Supreme Court. Jill Karofsky, a liberal candidate, defeated the conservative incumbent, Justice Daniel Kelly.
“It is exceptionally rare, at least from a historical perspective in Wisconsin, for an incumbent state Supreme Court justice to lose an election,” Francia said. “Karofsky’s victory was big news because it was so unexpected.”
Most recently, Republican Mike Garcia defeated Democrat Christy Smith in an election for the U.S. House of Representatives in the 25th District of California.
“The explanation for these two recent upsets can be best summarized by an old saying, ‘All politics is local,’” said Francia. “In other words, local factors specific to those contests explain the outcomes.”
Francia, and ECU’s Center for Survey Research, recently completed another statewide poll gauging North Carolina registered voter’s choice for president and governor in November, as well as current opinion on the government’s handling of the coronavirus. The poll indicates the presidential election in North Carolina could be a very close race with 46% picking Trump versus 43% for Biden.
“The poll shows President Trump with a three-point lead over Joe Biden. While the outcome is still within the margin of error [+/- 3.4 percentage points], I would make Trump the slight favorite to win North Carolina.
“In the race for governor, our polling shows a commanding 15-point lead for Roy Cooper over Dan Forest [51% to 36%]. Cooper also earns high approval from the public for his handling of the state’s coronavirus response. As of today, he seems a relatively safe bet for winning re-election,” Francia said.
Although some primaries were postponed earlier this year, Francia said that come November, the general election will go on and each state should be making plans now on how to handle the election during this pandemic.
“Election officials need to work closely with public health experts about the best path forward,” he said. “Certainly, nobody wants to see a repeat of 1918, when infections increased after the election.”
For more information on the recent public poll conducted in North Carolina by the Center for Survey Research, read the full report.
